Horserace '08

Time to say good bye

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 18:54:16 +0000

Well, we often say that we believe in the market to allocate resources. Sadly, insofar as hits on this blog represent the preferences of the zillions of folks out there in that useful abstraction known as “the market,” the market is not intensely interested in the information posted on this blog. Whether it’s because of not enough posts, not enough unique or truly fabulous posts, a post-primary-pre-convention paucitude of interest in the horse race or a plenitude of other sources of information and opinion about the election, not that many people have been coming to Horserace’08 to get their election fixes. So this blog will soon be a thing of the past. We’ll be posting election-related material on our Orange Punch blog from now on.

I guess you could view this development as part of what economist/philosopher Joseph Schumpeter called the process of “creative destruction” that is endemic to capitalism. This is an interesting time of trial-and-error for the newspaper business as we adjust to changing technology and reader preferences and move increasingly to a Web-first format in which (hopefully) the dead-tree version will continue, but there will be more varied and richer content on the Web. We’ll keep putting stuff out there and, ineluctably, readers will tell us, though their interest and comments, what is truly useful and/or interesting to them. We’d like to think we’ll have as many hits as misses, but we feel confident that you will let us know.

Obama still vetting veeps

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:34:11 +0000

According to the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza, the Obama campaign is still digging deeply into the backgrounds of a larger number of vice presidential possibilities than most people thought would still be on the list by the point, less than a month before the Democratic convention. Perhaps it’s nothing more than that these guys are nothing if not thorough, which comports with the way they’ve run the campaign so far, at least for the most part. They could surprise us, but it doesn’t look as if he will be announcing a running mate any time soon.

Republicans should push energy

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:30:01 +0000

Not that I have any interest in one side or another — and I really don’t, I’m resigned to having a terrible president next year, as has been the case for most of my lifetime — but it seems to me that given how thoroughly George W. Bush has trashed the Republican “brand,” the best bet for the GOP would be to focus on energy. The Democratic Congress, with its ostrich-like approach not only to further drilling or exploration but also to any hint of nuclear power, is giving the Reps all the ammunition they need. Substantial majorities favor at least offshore drilling. This seems to me the only issue — foreign policy is iffy given the unpopularity of the Iraq war — where the Republicans stand to have a clear advantage over the Democrats. If the Republicans are smart, they’ll focus on energy relentlessly.

McCain really going negative

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:17:06 +0000

With his ad calling Barack Obama the biggest celebrity in the world, with not-so-subtle fleeting images of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton thrown in to reinforce the point, the McCain campaign seems to have decided to go really negative. It comes after an ad criticizing Obama for making time to go to the gym instead of visiting wounded warriors in Germany. There’s a fair amount of confusion as to how that came about, but given that Obama visited the wounded in Kuwait and at Walter Reed recently, it hardly qualifies as the completely callous attitude the McCain ad portrays.

As the former WaPo-now-HuffPost’s Tom Edsall points out, McCain’s track record when going negative might not be encouraging to McCain supporters, and it might not really be McCain’s style. I have no principled objection to negative ads, and given that he’s the underdog they may be McCain’s best choice. But the tactic could easily backfire.

So Obama backs Larry Craig in Idaho?

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 20:45:32 +0000

An Ohio political button manufacturer managed to put out a campaign button featuring the slogan “Change We Can Believe In” and pictures of Barack Obama and Idaho Republican Sen. Larry “wide stance” Craig — who isn’t running in November due to the unfortunate fact of having been arrested in an airport men’s room allegedly soliciting gay sex. Of course the button was supposed to feature Idaho Democratic senatorial candidate Larry Larocco. Guess if you’ve seen one Larry you’ve seen ‘em all.

McCain’s vice presidential conundrum

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 20:07:24 +0000

Here’s a pretty good analysis of the dilemma John McCain faces in picking a vice presidential nominee, which may be why, despite rumors to the contrary last week, he hasn’t picked a running mate yet. He could go for a reliable conservative to reassure and maybe even enthuse the “base,” but none of the likely ones — Romney, former Ohio Rep. and OMB head Rep. Rob Portman, Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty — necessarily bring the guarantee of winning a particular state or energizing the base. Or he could go more independent with somebody like CT Sen. Joe Lieberman, a nominal Democrat, or former PA Gov. Tom Ridge. But Lieberman is really a liberal Democrat on almost every issue but the war and Ridge is pro-choice, so either would likely infuriate the base.

So that leaves Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison or Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin? Or maybe Condi Rice? But then she’s pro-choice too

Kaine’s lips sill loose

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 19:51:17 +0000

Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine continues to break the unwritten rule that vice presidential prospects don’t talk in publc about their prospects. While visiting the fairgrounds at Chincoteague Island with his daughter, he told some Virginia residents, “There has been a long list. It seems to be getting shorter. And I’m still being mentioned.” Sounds like the remark of a novice, but apparently he is still being considered.

McCain’s biopsy comes back clean

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 19:35:12 +0000

Since I noted previously that John McCain had a growth removed from his face and a biopsy was to be performed, here’s the follow-up. The biopsy came back clean. No evidence of cancer.

Boomlet for Kaine

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:08:54 +0000

The conventions of the political class call for vice presidential possibilities to avoid even the appearance of being interested in the job in public, no matter how furiously they might be campaigning behind the scenes to be the choice. Given those conventions, it’s difficult to assess the prospects of Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as Barack Obama’s veep choice.

There does seem to be a small boomlet for Tim Kaine. Bill Kristol predicted he would be the choice on Fox News Sunday. Then there’s this story in today’s WaPo, noting that Kaine has told close associates (who spoke anonymously, of course) that he is being vetted, in that he has been asked to provide extensive personal information in the eternal search to make sure there are no landmines in a potential candidate’s background. This is unusual; most people on the short list respond with denials or no comments when such questions are raised.

One wonders if this will be a deterrent. The Obama campaign has been notably tightly disciplined, with almost no leaks not authorized from the top. Could Kaine speaking in a way that got him in the paper (even if anonymously sourced rather than directly from him) be a sign to the Obamanauts that he isn’t sufficiently disciplined to be a team member?

Pluses: Kaine was the first governor to endorse Obama in Feb. 2007, he’s popular in Virginia, which the Dems would love to win, reinforces the outsider image, and he and Obama seem to like one another. Minuses: He’s been in only since 2005, has no single signal accomplishment, and has zero foreign policy/national security experience.

Impact of Obama’s trip

by Alan Bock, Register editorial writer — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 00:12:32 +0000

Here’s a reasonably good instant assessment of Obama’s trip. Short version: He did well in the snakepit of Middle Eastern politics, got tripped up by the decision not to visit the Landstuhl hospital in Germany, “the sheer scope of the trip itself offered a fresh round of ammunition for those who consider Obama a swaggering upstart,” he got lucky when Iraqi PM Naliki all but endorsed his troop withdrawal plan, and it’s unclear whether what plays well in Paris will play well in Peoria.